연이은 北 미사일..."한반도의 정세 분수령은 상반기"

North Korea conducted seven missile activities in January, a record monthly high since Kim Jong-un took power.
Experts forecast tensions on the Peninsula will linger and keep cross-border relations deadlocked.
Kim Dami provides a deeper analysis.
2022 may be another wild ride for the peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea has had a renewed flurry of missile tests, staging seven missile launches just last month.
Experts say the worst is yet to come.

"The North has already declared it will make the upcoming birthdays of former leader Kim Jong-il and the founding leader Kim Il-sung big political moments."

It's highly likely that Pyeongyang will conduct activities such as military parades for those anniversaries, especially since they fall into the North's five-or-ten-year cycle.
Watchers note the regime will not immediately cross the so-called red line such as resuming nuclear activities, as that could also be a risk for the North.
But its latest round of missile launches reflect part of Pyeongyang's change of tactics to satisfy its needs and wants, including the delay or suspension of springtime South Korea-U.S. joint military drills.

"If the joint drills are postponed or suspended, that could be a pretext for the North to return to dialogue."

But not all hope is lost.
With the prolonged border shutdown due to the pandemic, the North could seek to solve internal and economic difficulties by improving inter-Korean ties and returning to dialogue with the new South Korean administration in May.

"The new administration will introduce a new North Korea policy, but it could take months to appoint new personnel in charge of inter-Korean affairs and North Korea."

The expert added that the U.S. will highly likely continue to push for diplomacy and dialogue with the North, which is why the new South Korean administration and its approach to North Korea are crucial and influence Pyeongyang-Washington relations.
Kim Dami, Arirang News.

#NorhtKorea #Korean_Peninsula #Missile

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2022-02-02, 12:00 (KST)

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