A study published demographic-research.org has stated that human lifespan will reach 132 years of age by the end of this century, but how many people will attain it?
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They say as statisticians who study demography (demography is the study of statistics such as births, deaths, income, or the incidence of disease, which illustrate the changing structure of human populations); they expect that Jeanne Calment’s record will be broken by the year 2100.
They describe in the paper how they studied maximum human lifespan using a data-driven approach. And that their peer-reviewed study, published in June 2021, models and combines two key components:
how the risk of dying flattens after the age of 110, and growth in the number of people reaching the age of 110 this century.
They say that their analysis of these two factors, which was completed before the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests it's nearly inevitable that someone will break Jeanne Calment's record during the 21st century.
• They say that a lifespan of 122 years will be beaten
• with an 89% chance of someone living to at least the age of 126
• and a 3% chance that someone will reach the age of 132
What is the maximum human lifespan, scientists have long debated whether or not there is a fixed limit to human lifespan. Some biologists think the data shows that aging is not a disease that can be treated, but instead an inevitable process that cannot be fully stopped, whether through medical breakthroughs or by other means. Some demographers have argued that there is a natural limit to life expectancy, implying that maximum ages will level off as well. Others believe there is plenty of evidence that lifespans will continue to lengthen – well at least for a lucky few, but as the old idiom goes, we make our own luck. Several prominent biologists and medical experts have recently published findings suggesting there is some hope for extending life spans dramatically via medical interventions. Ultra-wealthy Tech Titans such as Tesla's Elon Musk and Google co-founder Sergey Brin are investing heavily in this kind of research.
In 2002, two demographers; Jim Oeppen and James Vaupel observed that between 1928 and 1990, predictions of life expectancy proposed by some leading demographers were, on average, broken just five years after the prediction was made. They also noted that flattening gains to life expectancy should not determine our view of maximum lifespan, as they are quite different things - the maximum is not the average! Their results indicate there's a 13% chance an individual will reach the age of 130, and a very tiny chance anyone lives to the age of 135 during this century. The data suggests that lifespan may not have a hard limit, but a practical one. Humans will almost certainly break Jeanne Calment's record of 122 this century, but probably not by more than a decade, so the practical limit could be 131 years of age.
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