Households will see Inflation around for much longer than expected and while the pressure on households continue to build, so does distrust across the economy in Australia, according to data from the IMF and a special Roy Morgan End of Financial Year webinar.
Despite the better-than-expected US inflation figures, the International Monetary Fund in its quarterly update of the World Economic Outlook just warned that momentum on global disinflation had slowed, largely due to ongoing elevated rates of services inflation.
For example, the latest data today for the UK showed that The Consumer Prices Index inflation unexpectedly stays at 2% in June, higher than economists predicted and causing a paring of bets on when the Bank of England will cut rates at its next meeting. The news sent the pound above $1.30 for the first time in a year. Services inflation that has been a special focus of the BOE was also unchanged at 5.7%. Economists had expected the headline rate to drop to 1.9%, while the central bank had forecast services at 5.1% by now. Traders pushed back bets on a rate cut next month, pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a move on Aug. 1, down from almost 50% yesterday.
In Australia, the June quarter consumer price index on July 31 will be decisive in determining whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will be forced to deliver a 14th interest rate rise at its August 6 board meeting. With underlying inflation running about 4 per cent, markets are pricing in a 16 per cent chance the RBA will raise the cash rate to 4.6 per cent, from 4.35 per cent, when it next meets. That said, bets on another rate rise from the RBA eased over the past week as bond markets rallied on the back of an outright decline in the US consumer price index, though I think the read across from the US by the markets is over done.
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