(8 Oct 2008) SHOTLIST
++CLIENTS PLEASE NOTE CORRECTION: IMF CHIEF ECONOMIST'S NAME IS: OLIVIER BLANCHARD NOT OLIVIER BERNARD++
1. Wide of news conference
2. Cutaway reporters
3. SOUNDBITE: (English) Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist:
"The world economy is facing a major downturn. While there's exceptional uncertainty at this point, our best forecast is that world growth will be around 3 percent in 2009. Now that number might not sound so bad. It hides however, important differences between advanced countries on the one hand, and emerging and developing countries on the other. We project that growth in advanced countries will be very close to zero or even negative until at least the middle of 2009, with a slow recovery during the rest of the year."
4. Cutaway reporters
5. SOUNDBITE: (English) Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist:
"World growth will be instead driven by growth in emerging and developing economies. We predict that even they will grow at the substantially lower rate than they have in the recent past - seven percent in 2008, six percent in 2009."
6. Wide of Blanchard and other IMF officials
7. SOUNDBITE: (English) Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist:
"The crucial role of both financial and macro economic policies at this juncture, it is clearly too late for responses to avoid the slowdown but they can be used to head off the risk of even more dire outcomes. Our belief that such policies will be implemented underlies our assessment that the slowdown can be limited and that the recovery can start in the course of 2009, and strengthen in 2010."
8. Cutaway reporter
9. SOUNDBITE: (English) Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist:
"Our position is that it is not useful to use the word recession when the world is growing at 3 percent. In the normal definition of things, a recession is a negative number and that is not the case. That being said, 3 percent is a very low number for world growth and in the past indeed this might have been defined as on the borderline of a global recession."
10. Cutaway reporters
11. SOUNDBITE: (English) Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist:
"With the stabilisation of oil and commodity prices, the room for using monetary policy has substantially increased in most advanced economies. What happened this morning; namely the coordinated decrease in interest rates is clearly a step in the right direction."
(FIRST RUN 1830 NORTH AMERICA PRIME NEWS - 8 OCTOBER 2008)
12. Wide of news conference
13. SOUNDBITE: (English) Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist:
"My sense is that the sense of urgency that markets are basically making extremely clear, is going to force governments to basically adopt fairly coherent plans in the very near future. Under that assumption I believe that the risk of a Great Depression is nearly nil."
(FIRST RUN 1630 EUROPE PRIME NEWS - 8 OCTOBER 2008)
14. Wide of news conference
STORYLINE:
The International Monetary Fund confirmed on Wednesday that the world economy is facing a major downturn which will see growth slow sharply to around three per cent in 2009, with the United States likely to slide into recession.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook projected that the global economy, which grew by a hardy 5 percent last year, will lose considerable speed, slowing to 3.9 percent this year.
It is forecast to weaken even further to just 3 percent next year, marking the worst showing since 2002.
The Fed reduced its key rate from 2 per cent to 1.5 per cent.
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