President Joe Biden speaks in Washington at the North America's Building Trades Unions Legislative Conference. He announced this morning he's running for reelection.

Biden began his quest for reelection as the US economy teeters on the brink of recession and voters still feel the pinch of inflation, putting a significant hurdle in his path to winning a second term.

The video message introducing Biden’s final campaign focused largely on themes of democracy and combating extremism - underscoring what the president’s team sees as their strongest advantage over the likely Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.

But the approach to not tout Biden’s economic record - which has seen robust post-pandemic jobs growth - also underscores the risks ahead. Economists continue to forecast that inflation – and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to tame rising prices by hiking interest rates – will likely tilt the economy into a recession before the end of the year. That’s true even before accounting for the risk of a federal default if Biden is unable to broker a deal with House Republicans to raise the debt ceiling this summer.

The danger for the president is that these economic headwinds could blow his campaign off course. Former Presidents George H.W. Bush - whose campaign was derailed by a recession - and Jimmy Carter - whose administration was defined by stagflation - saw their reelection bids doomed by the economy.

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