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A crucial presidential election in Taiwan on January 13, 2024, is expected to shape future ties between the self-ruled island and mainland China. Relations between the two sides have severely deteriorated in the past seven years, as Beijing steps up military and other pressure in response to the current independence-leaning Taiwanese ruling party’s policies and US actions. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province that will eventually be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. But Washington is opposed to any attempt to take Taiwan by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons. The issue of Taiwan also continues to challenge US-China ties, making the outcome of this election a pivotal signal for the geopolitical landscape ahead.

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