Will the 2025 Social Security COLA go up or down?

I ran my projection 3 different ways, and all three ways show that 2025 Social Security COLA is headed higher – but its not projected to be much higher.

My favorite formula suggests 2025 Social Security COLA is headed towards 3.4%, which is slightly higher than last months projection.

With 4 months left to go until the official October COLA announcement, keep checking in to the Mr. Retirement YouTube channel each month as we update our projection.
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2023 Q3 CPI-W average: 301.236
2024 May CPI-W prior 3 month average: 307.492
307.492/301.236 = 1.0208
Average May CPI-W to October CPI-W inflation is .77% lower compared to the first part of the data.
1.0208 * 1.0131 = 1.0341
2025 Social Security COLA Projection = 3.4%

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Jeremy Keil, aka “Mr. Retirement” and Keil Financial Partners offer retirement planning services focused on retirement income and tax planning, Social Security and pension claiming decisions, health & life insurance analysis and estate planning strategies.
For important disclosures, see www.keilfp.com/important-disclosures

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