The paper focuses on the nexus between climate change and conflicts with an empirical analysis on a panel of 2,653 georeferenced cells covering the entire African continent between 1990 and 2016. Our econometric approach based on a spatial dynamic zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model yields three novel, and policy relevant, results. First, we observe temporal persistence of the effect of climate variations on the probability of conflicts over long time spans. Second, we find that the vulnerability of agricultural activities entails spatial persistence in the propensity of violence breakout. Third, local socio-economic features exacerbate the spatial propagation of conflicts.
Speaker: Prof. Valeria Costantini (Università degli Studi Roma Tre)
Chair: Sandro Montresor (GSSI)
Date: Thursday 14th May, 15-17 CEST
The seminar will take 2 hours (presentation + Q&A). For attendance registration please contact: socialscienceswebinars@gssi.it
