If we re-ran Earth's clock, would life arise again? Would another civilization eventually evolve? Astrobiology is faced with trying to contextualize our place in the Universe using just a single data point. But even a single data point contains information. The key to unlocking it is a careful understanding of the selection biases at play and intricacies of Bayesian statistics. Today, we're thrilled to present to you our explainer video of a new research paper led by Prof David Kipping that provides a direct quantification of the odds of life and intelligence on Earth-like worlds, based on our own chronology. Presented & Written by Prof. David Kipping.
This video is based on research conducted at the Cool Worlds Lab at Columbia University, New York. You can now support our research program directly here: [ Ссылка ]
Previous episodes to catch up on:
► "Watching the End of the World": [ Ссылка ]
► "Why We Could Be Alone": [ Ссылка ]
References:
► Kipping, D. 2020, "An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Life’s Early Start and Our Late Arrival", PNAS: [ Ссылка ]
► Spiegel, D. & Turner, E., 2011, "Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life's early emergence on Earth", PNAS 109, 395 [ Ссылка ]
► Carter, B. 2007, "Five or six step scenario for evolution?", Int. J. Astrobiology 7, 177 : [ Ссылка ]
► O'Malley-James, J. et al. 2013, "Swansong biospheres: refuges for life and novel microbial biospheres on terrestrial planets near the end of their habitable lifetimes" Int. J. Astrobiology 12, 99: [ Ссылка ]
► Bell, E. et al., 2015, "Potentially biogenic carbon preserved in a 4.1 billion-year-old zircon", PNAS 112, 14518: [ Ссылка ]
► Smith, H. & Szathmáry, E. 1995, "The Major Transitions in Evolution", Oxford, England: Oxford University Press
► Schopf, W. et al., 2018, "SIMS analyses of the oldest known assemblage of microfossils document their taxon-correlated carbon isotope compositions", PNAS 115, 53: [ Ссылка ]
Video materials & graphics used:
► Berkeley Lab/Sloan Sky Digital Survey: [ Ссылка ]
► Life Beyond by melodysheep: [ Ссылка ]
► K2-18b animation by ESA/Hubble, M. Kornmesser: [ Ссылка ]
► Earth 4k by NASA/ESA/M.Kornmesser: [ Ссылка ]
► Galaxy spinning animation by Huy Trường Nguyễn: [ Ссылка ]
► Earth timelapse from NASA DSCOVR EPIC: [ Ссылка ]
► Animation of GJ1214b by ESO/L. Calçada: [ Ссылка ]
► Roulette table by steveh552: [ Ссылка ]
► Sky timelapse by National Geographic: [ Ссылка ]
► Milky Way animation by Stefan Payne-Wardenaar: [ Ссылка ]
► Outro by Carl Sagan from his book Pale Blue Dot
► Thumbnail image licensed through StockFresh.com, image #8872987 by RAStudio
Movies/TV scenes used:
► Agora (2009)/Focus Features
► The Martian (2015)/20th Century Fox
► Noah (2014)/Paramount Pictures
Music used in chronological order:
► "The Sun is Scheduled to Come Out Tomorrow" ([ Ссылка ]) by Chris Zabriskie ([ Ссылка ]); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license ([ Ссылка ])
► "Cylinder Five" ([ Ссылка ]) by Chris Zabriskie ([ Ссылка ]); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license ([ Ссылка ])
► "Cylinder Two" ([ Ссылка ]) by Chris Zabriskie ([ Ссылка ]); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license ([ Ссылка ])
► "Stories About the World that Once Was" by Chris Zabriskie ([ Ссылка ]); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license ([ Ссылка ])
► "Painted Deserts" by Shimmer, licensed through SoundStripe.com: [ Ссылка ]
And also...
► Columbia University Department of Astronomy: [ Ссылка ]
► Cool Worlds Lab website: [ Ссылка ]
Latest Cool Worlds Videos ► [ Ссылка ]
Cool Worlds Research ► [ Ссылка ]
Cool Worlds Long Form Videos ► [ Ссылка ]
Guest Videos ► [ Ссылка ]
SUBSCRIBE here: [ Ссылка ]
THANKS FOR WATCHING!!
#AreWeAlone #Astrobiology #CoolWorlds
