Sunday at BSI’s 2024 Epistemology Camp was a loosely structured open discussion.

This second part starts with Gerd Gigerenzer discussing the evolution and interpretations of probability, emphasizing its connection to human beliefs and societal contexts. He explains that the classical theory of probability, emerging in the mid-17th century with Pascal and Fermat, was not merely abstract but intertwined with human rationality. He also touches on the ontic interpretation of probability, which considers it inherent in nature, began in the 19th century with thinkers like Charles Sanders Peirce and Gustav Theodor Fechner.

The discussion moves to critique of the current state of scientific theories, particularly focusing on quantum mechanics and the many-worlds interpretation. Anton Garrett dismisses the many-worlds interpretation, asserting that it leads to contradictions in quantum mechanics.

The conversation then shifts to the application of probability in legal contexts, with Dale Saran and Dan MacDougal discussing the challenges of proving guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. They note the issues with expert witnesses and the misuse of statistical evidence in court. Gigerenzer concludes by pointing out the lack of statistical training among lawyers and judges, which contributes to miscarriages of justice, and suggests that better risk communication could mitigate these problems.

00:00 Gerd Gigerenzer
11:03 William Briggs
14:22 Anton Garrett
16:47 Dale Saran
19:50 Peter Coles
22:52 Dan MacGougal
25:36 Dale Saran
29:06 Gerd Gigerenzer
32:41 Patrick Whalen
34:25 Gerd Gigerenzer
38:17 Malcolm Kendrick

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