America is Dying. Population Growth is at historic lows. Will the Death of America lead to a US Housing Crash and Economic Recession?
Deaths across America are surging. Births are plummeting. And this means that population growth in the US is nearing all-time lows. According to US Census Bureau estimates the US added 1.2 million people in 2020 - the lowest level in 30 years.
The aging of the US population is leading to a nasty combination of factors: more people reaching the age of death, with fewer people having children. This is the start of an irreversible trend that will lead to consistently lower organic population growth across the country.
People in Real Estate and the Housing Market are suspiciously silent regarding this harsh demographic reality. No realtor, real estate investor, or home owner wants to acknowledge that the future levels of growth in the country will be declining. Why? Likely because the declining demographic growth levels could lead to a Housing Crash and Recession.
But some parts of the country are further along in the aging and economic decline process than others. The Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast have entered a stage where deaths outnumber births. Particularly in markets such as Pittsburgh, PA, Asheville, NC, and Sarasota, FL.
But the Western Half of the United States - including markets like Austin, TX, Salt Lake City, UT, and Los Angeles, CA - still have strong demographic growth. Births still outnumber deaths, contributing to organic growth. But the problem with these markets is that population growth / natural increase is also declining.
Unfortunately this trend is just getting started given the oldest of the Baby Boomer generation is now hitting 75 years old. This means that America's death rates will likely continue increasing over the next 5, 10, and even 20 years. This will cause further issues for future US population growth, and also pose problems for the Housing Market.
Home buyers and real estate investors should educate themselves on this US Census Bureau demographic growth data, both at the national and metro level, so they can make a more educated decision.
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