Using Matrix Games Nuclear War Simulator I run a couple scenarios involving a conflict between Pakistan and India with one of the scenarios involving China as well. This is a plausible escalation path with as both India and Pakistan are nuclear armed nations with a long history of conflict and a large disputed area. This is commonly seen as one of the potential nuclear flashpoints especially as the Cold War ended and Nato and Russian relations improved in the 2000s.

Clearly the improved relations did not last and now the US and China are moving closer to open conflict. This simulator serves as a reminder why great power nations should refrain from military solutions and rely on diplomatic solutions. Even a quick nuclear exchange with India and Pakistan's limited stockpiles would bring death and destruction at scale never before seen in such a short time frame. This simulator represents a 24 hour period of time and we would see casualties into the millions.

This also represents a danger in first strike posturing. Having ran the simulation several times with Pakistan launching a decapitation strike they were successful several times in almost completely eliminating the ability for India to strike back with nuclear forces. However more often than that India was able to strike back with a sizable portion of their arsenal and cause massive casualties against Pakistan. While a simulator should never be taken as a prediction of what would happen it can be used to gauge what could happen under various parameters. Even under the most favorable outcome under military conditions with these nations sharing a border fallout from strikes against the enemy could end up drifting back over your own border and killing a sizeable portion of your own people.

свернуть