Some quick takeaways and highlights to look for:
— There’s a trend of deep tech startups pursuing overly ambitious “narrative rotations” by constantly expanding into new areas, which Michael aptly calls a “Ponzi scheme of ambition.” This is driven by the need to justify raising large amounts of venture capital.
— His bias towards building one big business in a massive market rather than narrative expansions. For shelling point investments, like SpaceX and Palantir, the focus is on owning and expanding a principle or market over time, rather than narrative rotations.
— Compound’s approach to investment themes that are considered “too early or too ridiculous” with no real customers yet, and funding those contrarian opportunities.
— The value of developing specific year-by-year theses on how certain sectors will play out, acknowledging that 80% may be wrong but aiming for the 20% that are very right. You only really need to be right twice per fund.
Michael — [ Ссылка ]
Compound — [ Ссылка ]
