The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA has predicted that EL NINO conditions will likely begin in the middle of 2023. In an update on March 9, 2023, NOAA predicted that El Nino could arrive as early as July or August 2023.
La Niña and El Niño together form a climate cycle that has an immense impact on weather and ocean conditions across the globe.
During El Niño, the waters in the east and central equatorial Pacific experience abnormal warming which is the opposite of La Niña where the region experiences anomalous cooling. Together these two phenomena affect ocean currents, fish populations, and wind flows.
They also often result in more rainfall in some parts of the world while triggering droughts in others. The US agencies have noted that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming up slowly and the Nino region indices are returning to neutral status marking the end of La Nina years.
The trend has been that each phase is observed by a year or two of neutral conditions before the next one begins. But this year the 3 years long La Niña is expected to quickly follow by El Niño. The beginning of the EL Nino is a harbinger of bad news for India’s agriculture. El Niños are generally linked with poor southwest monsoon rains across India as observed in previous El Niño years of 2009, 2014, 2015 and 2018. The poor monsoons due to El Niño will also impact India’s Kharif crop output and agriculture sector. Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to provide an official update about this projected transition. The NOAA seems sure that El Niño will likely arrive by mid-2023.
