Notes for Economics
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Let’s look at the long waves discovered
by Kondratiev in 1922. These waves each extend
a length of fifty to sixty years on average.
Given these estimates, each cultural age contains
forty Kondratiev Waves.
The difference in wave length depends on whatever
we are measuring-- industrial or agricultural
data. Originally, Kondratiev measured his
agricultural wave as 58 years. However, the
industrial-based wave is approximately 50
years. We suggest that the average cycle has
shortened gradually over the past century
due to rapid urbanization. In the United States,
80% of the population grew its own food in
1900. However, after the First World War,
farm failures and a growing demand for manufacturing
labor led to a massive migration to cities.
Over the decades, agricultural production
became mechanized. Now, less than 5% of the
labor force grows the food for the entire
population.
