The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) sponsored this talk by Christine Leah, entitled “Deterrence and Arms Control in a Second Conventional Age” on April 2, 2015, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Abstract:
Proponents of nuclear reductions and nuclear disarmament insist that the world should move towards a second conventional age: where nuclear weapons are either marginalized or completely removed from international politics. How might the U.S. deter adversaries, and assure allies, in such a world? The answer would ultimately rest on conventional force balances and conventional arms control, especially of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. But this reliance on conventional means is likely to produce the opposite outcome of what its advocates intend. Rather than stability, such a world is likely to be characterized by destabilizing arms races and an increased likelihood of great power war – particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. After all, in Europe and especially Asia, the history of conventional deterrence and formal arms control agreements since 1500 is rife with failure. Drawing upon such challenges, Dr. Leah will advance the argument that nuclear weapons, in sufficient numbers and deployed in a wide spectrum of delivery systems, remain a necessary component of international security.
Leah is a Postdoctoral Fellow with the Grand Strategy Program at Yale University. Previously, she was a Stanton Postdoctoral Fellow in Nuclear Security at MIT, a visiting fellow at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, a summer research fellow at RAND, and a research intern at IISS-Asia, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, IISS-London, the French Ministry of Defense, and the UMP office of Mr. Nicolas Sarkozy. She is the author of Australia and the Bomb, and has published in Comparative Strategy, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Asian Security, the Australian Journal of International Affairs, The National Interest, and with RSIS and RAND.
DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed here do not represent LLNL or the U.S. government.
