France and Germany incorrectly assumed an easy consensus around Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
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Europe is having trouble choosing which of the two remaining candidates it wants for the World Trade Organization's top job: Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala or South Korea's Yoo Myung-hee.
A majority of EU countries, including the economic kingpins France and Germany, have thrown their weight behind Okonjo-Iweala.
But they underestimated support in Eastern Europe and the Baltics for Yoo, five diplomats said.
EU leaders discussed the appointment last week in the context of relations between the EU and Africa. European Council President Charles Michel underlined the importance of having a united position, which has been the case in the selection process so far. Both the German presidency of the Council and the European Commission assumed an easy consensus on the Nigerian candidate this week.
But the group of Eastern European rebels this week made sure their voice was heard.
An EU meeting meant to sign off on the EU's endorsement of Okonjo-Iweala was canceled at the last minute on Wednesday because of their opposition, the five diplomats confirmed.
Smelling a revolt, Germany, which holds the Council presidency, decided to move the meeting to Friday to win time. "The presidency and the Commission thought that this was going to be a piece of cake," said one EU diplomat. "It's not."
Germany is now calling up "the political level in capitals" — meaning ministers — to snuff out the mutineers.
Diplomats from the rebel countries cited various reasons for supporting Yoo. For one thing, Korea has close economic ties with parts of Eastern and Central Europe. Korean companies have major car plants in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, while Samsung Electronics has important interests in Poland.
Some also fear the EU could end up publicly supporting the candidate who doesn't make it, as the U.S. and China have not indicated their favorites.
Two diplomats said that if the EU backs Nigeria but Yoo ends up becoming the new director-general, she might not pick a European deputy.
"Let's be fair: if we end up supporting the loser, that would lower our chances in the selection of the deputies," one of them said.
Others argue that the selection of deputies is based on geographical balance, and that no global trade chief would offend the EU, the world's biggest trade bloc, by bypassing it.
A third argument is Yoo's superior trade experience to the Nigerian. "Okonjo-Iweala is a very charismatic candidate, but that can also have negative effects," said the second diplomat. "Can she find the consensus that is needed in Geneva?"
Germany is now holding individual talks with capitals to get the last holdouts to fall in line with the EU majority.
And the propects of unity are ultimately quite high.
Several countries who supported Yoo, such as Poland, have privately admitted that they won't block a consensus if it comes to it. Finland, which was hesitant at first, said it wants to go with the majority.
"Finland has throughout the process emphasized EU's unity and we are joining the consensus," said spokesman Marko Ruonala.
However, it's still uncertain whether Germany will get all countries on board by Friday. Two diplomats said Hungary might prove the most stubborn holdout.
If a consensus is not reached on Friday's meeting among trade diplomats, EU ambassadors will take over on Monday.
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