Just think of all the questions that arise when a seemingly-healthy baby dies. Was there an illness that went undetected? Was there a rare genetic defect that couldn’t possibly have been known? Are any signs of physical trauma related to the resuscitation efforts of a fragile infant, or something more sinister? Every time a baby dies, police investigate with a host of complex questions to determine whether the death is natural and accidental, or… not. And the odds are anything but clear.
So what do we do when it happens twice to the same person? What are the odds of THAT?
A British mother named Sally Clark suffered two separate tragedies with the deaths of her infant sons. Her resulting trial for murder included expert testimony from Sir Roy Meadow, a noted expert on child abuse cases. And Meadow’s misuse of conditional probability painted Sally Clark as perpetrator rather than a victim.
Math is often theoretical, but sometimes doing it right is the difference between life and death.
*** PARTIAL LIST OF SOURCES ***
Ben-Israel, Adi. “Using Statistical Evidence in Courts: What Went Wrong in the Case of Sally Clark?” [ Ссылка ]
Dyer, Clare. “Falsely Convicted Sally Clarke Dies Suddenly.” BMJ: British Medical Journal, vol. 334, no. 7594, BMJ, 2007, pp. 602–03, [ Ссылка ].
General Medical Council v. Meadow, England and Wales Court of Appeals (Civil Division), [ Ссылка ]
Nobles, Richard, and David Schiff. “A Story of Miscarriage: Law in the Media.” Journal of Law and Society, vol. 31, no. 2, [Cardiff University, Wiley], 2004, pp. 221–44, [ Ссылка ].
Scheurer, Vincent. “Convicted on Statistics?” [ Ссылка ]
Schneps, L., & Colmez, C. (2013). Math on trial: How numbers get used and abused in the courtroom. [ Ссылка ]
Watkins SJ. Conviction by mathematical error? Doctors and lawyers should get probability theory right. BMJ. 2000;320(7226):2-3. [ Ссылка ]
Webster, Richard. “Roy Meadow and the Statistics of Cot Deaths.” [ Ссылка ]
*** LINKS ***
Vsauce2:
TikTok: [ Ссылка ]
Twitter: [ Ссылка ]
Facebook: [ Ссылка ]
Talk Vsauce2 in The Create Unknown Discord: [ Ссылка ]
Vsauce2 on Reddit: [ Ссылка ]
Hosted and Produced by Kevin Lieber
Instagram: [ Ссылка ]
Twitter: [ Ссылка ]
Podcast: [ Ссылка ]
Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor
[ Ссылка ]
Editing by John Swan
[ Ссылка ]
Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber
[ Ссылка ]
Vsauce's Curiosity Box: [ Ссылка ]
#education #vsauce #crime
Making A Math Murderer
Теги
vsaucevsauce2vsausevsause2breaking newstrue crimetrue crime storiestrue crime podcastsally clarksally clark casesally clark documentarystatisticsstatistics and probabilitytrue crime documentarymath crimevsauce2 paradoxvsauce2 birthday paradoxvsauce2 money paradoxroy meadowbritish crime documentarysurviving the deadliest gamedo chairs existtrue crime youtubefbi framed him with scienceuk crimetrue crime documentary murders