A cool front will move south today, bringing scattered thunderstorms to the northern half of Texas. The same is expected on Saturday. Hurricane Beryl will approach the Texas coast late Sunday with a direct threat of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, tornadoes, and heavy rain.

Hurricane Beryl made landfall this morning south of Cancun in the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening is expected as the system moves northwest over land through this evening. We anticipate Beryl will move into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and continue moving northwest this weekend. Assuming logic plays out, Beryl will spend most of Saturday recovering from its trip over the Yucatan. How quickly the system can recover will determine its intensity at landfall late Sunday. Confidence is increasing that Beryl will directly impact the Texas coast, as the track forecast is trending north. Some data suggests Beryl may move closer to the Coastal Bend, while others continue to show a Lower Texas Gulf Coast strike.

In reality, the impacts from Beryl will be felt along most of the Texas Gulf Coast, especially during high tide when storm surge impacts will be highest. As Alberto demonstrated a couple of weeks ago, the on-shore flow will result in multiple rounds of flooding – especially during the high tides. We anticipate the same issues with Beryl, though it will likely be more severe closer to the landfall location, especially just northeast.

Unfortunately, the hurricane's forward speed is expected to slow as it approaches the Texas Coast, which will continue after landfall. Beryl is now anticipated to land as a high-end category one hurricane Sunday night, so we should prepare for a category two hurricane. Always plan for one category above the forecast, just in case. A lot will depend on Beryl’s structure once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

After Hurricane Beryl makes landfall on the Texas Coast late Sunday, it will slowly turn north. While the winds will weaken, we’ll continue to deal with heavy rainfall, on-shore flow, and the potential for tornadoes into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday across South Texas, the Coastal Plains, into South-Central Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. We’ll also see rain chances farther north since most of Texas will be in a tropical regime. Fresh-water flooding will be a threat, and we’ll narrow down that issue as we get closer to landfall and a better idea of the eventual track of Beryl’s remnants into next week.

Hurricane Watches, Storm Surge Watches, and Tropical Storm Watches will be issued for parts of the Texas Gulf Coast later this morning or afternoon. Follow the advice from local officials regarding evacuations.

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