Welcome back, swrmers. As you made have heard or seen, the latest contribution to the sixth assessment report from the IPCC’s Working Group recently dropped. It is the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change to date. It brings together the latest advances in climate science, combines multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations.
In short, scientific understanding has improved and produced more accurate calculations that help us understand future effects to our climate. For the Isaac Asimov fans, it’s our psychohistory on the climate. And the predictions are pretty bleak.
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We now understand that the effects of climate change we thought were a little further down the track are now predicted to occur a little sooner than expected. And they will be more severe. And the confidence levels have increased so scientists are a lot more certain about these predictions. Why do scientists use confidence levels?
We gauge the scientific results with confidence and likelihood as there is always a chance for unknown future events such as war, pandemics, volcanic activity, meteor impact, zombie apocalypse, that could vary results. But this updated report uses more definitive language than the AR5 predecessor, increasing the frequency of the terms: virtually certain, high confidence and extremely likely when describing the negative impacts of man-made climate change.
Some of the key findings:
1. It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.
2. Changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened since the last report. And it is virtually certain that Hot extremes (including heatwaves) are more frequent and more intense
3. Under the updated scenarios with increasing CO2 emissions, the ocean and land carbon sinks are projected to be less effective at slowing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. So in our future planting more trees will be a less effective way to combat climate change.
4. Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets, and global sea level. How devastating these changes will be to the delicate ecosystems they sustain has the potential to change life on Earth dramatically.
5. Limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions. Strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in methane emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality.
So the crux of this is we’re in trouble. The long term effects of human made climate change are unavoidable. Humans need to mitigate these long term effects by taking action. Now. Reduce your carbon footprint and help out others to do the same. Send the AR6 “summary for policymakers” to your local representatives and urge them to not only read it but understand the dire consequences for our future and generations to come.
Make sure your voice is heard.
The time for action is now.
