Swing state polls in the last few weeks have been great for Donald Trump, but bad for the Republican Party. A new analysis of what's happening in the states shows that America could once again witness a rise in "ticket-splitting," which is when a voter picks one Party for president and the other Party in down-ballot races. This means that Trump could still win the White House while costing Republicans the House and Senate. Farron Cousins explains what's happening.
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*This transcript was auto-generated. Please excuse any typos.
A very weird dynamic is happening right now in the United States, and it's something that America hasn't seen since the 1950s and the 1960s, a little bit in the seventies, but then things started to shift in the eighties and nineties, and of course the two thousands and 2010s. So what is this weird thing that's happening? Well, it's that we're starting to see a, for our time record number of voters that are called, what's the exact term? Ticket Splitters. Now a ticket splitter voter is somebody who votes for one party for president and then basically goes down ballot and votes for the other party. So they're splitting the ticket between the two parties. Here's what's happening. In the 2020 election, the number of ticket splitters was 3%. Now, back in the fifties and sixties, about 25% of the public were ticket splitters, right? We're not loyal to this party or that party.
We like this person here, we like this person here. That's who they voted for. That's how they voted. You know, evening things out based on policy, not personalities. Now, once we got into the eighties, the nineties, and definitely in the twenties and 2010s, all that went to hell. It was tribal partisan politics. But in swing states across the country, we're starting to see, according to the political scientists, five, 10, 15% of voters saying that they're gonna be ticket splitters, which means they're supporting Donald Trump for the presidency. But they wanna keep a check on Donald Trump by making sure the Democrats retain control of the Senate and get control of the house again, which, okay, I mean, if that's the worst case scenario, it could be worse, right? But here's what's happening. Nowhere is the difference starker than in Montana, where poll showed Democratic Senator John Tester with a lead of between two and nine points.
Even though Biden is losing the state by 21 points in Ohio, democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is up by five points, even though Biden's down by 10. And the pattern is repeating in other swing states in Arizona and Nevada, the averages show Democratic Senate candidates, Ruben Gallego and Jackie Rosen ahead by five points, while Biden trails in both states by three or more. Pennsylvania Democrat, Bob Casey leads his Senate, Senate race by Five Points, while Biden trails by Three Points, Wisconsin Biden and Trumper Tide. But incumbent Democratic senator, Tammy Baldwin's leading Republican businessman, Eric Hove, day by eight points. So all these swing states out there where Democrats have these op, uh, not open Senate seats, but Senate seats up for reelection. That's, that's terrifying, right? Typically, you would not want that in a swing state when you have a neck and neck presidential race. 'cause usually that would mean whoever pulls ahead in the presidential race is gonna take that Senate seat for their party.
But that's not what's happening. So we have record numbers of voters, again, for our lifetimes in these states telling us like, yeah, I'm gonna vote for Trump, but I'm gonna vote for the Democrats for everything else. So we could see a scenario here where Donald Trump does win the White House, but Democrats retain control of the Senate, which they will keep until at least the year 2030 at this point. And then Democrats take him back over the house, which means there would be, to a small degree, some kind of check on Donald Trump's power for two years at least. So that's something, I mean, we don't want Donald Trump in the White House at all, but if the voters out there are understanding that, hey, we do need to put a check on this guy by sending the Democrats back to Senate, then it means in the next few months, those Trump supporters might be able to flip and become Democratic supporters. If either Biden gets replaced by somebody better, or if President Biden comes out and gets rid of all the concerns about his cognitive abilities. Either way, those voters are flippable, is what this poll tells me. And worst case scenario, there may be a little bit of a check on Trump's power.
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