• U.S. Equities: Mixed performance; Nasdaq up 0.2%, Russell 2000 up 1.3%, S&P 500 slightly down.
• Sector Performance: Weak, with 9 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors in the red.
• Oil and Gas: Inventories rose, crude oil prices up 1% for the week.
• Treasury Yields: Modestly higher despite slow inflation growth.
• Economic Indicators:
o Core PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY.
o Personal income slightly above forecasts; consumer spending down.
o Jobless claims highest since November 2021.
o Q1 GDP revised up to +1.4%, consumer spending revised down to +1.5%.
o Durable goods report showed a drop in business equipment investment.
o Consumer confidence eased; sentiment index revised higher.
• Housing Market: Stress due to high prices and mortgage rates; new and pending home sales fell.
• Government Action: New policies to increase access to affordable housing announced by Treasury Secretary Yellen.
• International:
o Japanese yen fell to its lowest since 1986; potential intervention in the forex market.
o Inflation readings in Japan accelerated, possibly leading to interest rate hikes.
o CPI in Canada and Australia rose, complicating potential monetary easing.
The week ahead:
• U.S. Markets: Early closure on Wednesday and closed on Thursday for Independence Day.
• Key U.S. Data Points:
o Monthly jobs data, including non-farm payroll and wage numbers for June (projected payroll growth: 190k).
o FOMC meeting minutes release on Wednesday.
o Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the ECB Forum on Tuesday.
o ISM manufacturing and services PMI data, and factory orders.
• Europe:
o French Parliamentary elections (first round began, second round next week).
o Euro under pressure due to political uncertainty from recent elections.
o Inflation updates: Germany’s CPI today, broader EU on Tuesday.
o German manufacturing sector reports on factory orders and industrial production.
• UK: Election on Thursday, with Labour Party likely to win leadership.
• China: Caixin PMI reports following official government numbers released over the weekend.
