In the second of a three-part series examining the repercussions of COVID-19 on defence spending and strategic planning, Paul Belkin, Rose Gottemoeller, Fenella McGerty, Peter Round and moderator E.J. Herold discuss the impact on European allies and partners. The panellists consider optimistic and pessimistic views of intra-European and transatlantic relations while highlighting the pandemic’s role in magnifying existing trends.

Regarding European defence posture, the panellists emphasised the fiscal uncertainty associated with post-COVID economies. They noted that on-going tensions resulting from Brexit and a shifting US defence commitment toward the Indo-Pacific may complicate the national calculus for collective defence and may push European nations to focus inwardly as increasing financial pressures affect their economies. With respect to transatlantic defence, the panellists acknowledged that US pressure for greater burden-sharing in NATO will likely persist, regardless of the US presidential election outcome, and in spite of expected pressures on allies’ budgets as nations resolve the COVID crisis and its effects.

The discussion further examined the expanding definition of national security and the critical role that militaries play in contributing to national resilience vis-a-vis natural disasters and supply chain shocks, as well as responding to hybrid threats and full kinetic warfare. Considering the economic impact of the pandemic and persistent security challenges posed by actors such as Russia, the panellists recognised a need for the US and allies to improve their cooperation through better communication and coordination.

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