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In his recent video, PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model, shared an extremely optimistic outlook on the general direction and reasoning behind Bitcoin's price movement.
He explains that while Bitcoin's price might occasionally dip below support levels like the 64,000 dollars line, this should not be a major concern as such dips are usually temporary.
The critical pattern to watch is that in bull markets, the 5-month realized price remains above the 2-year realized price and the overall realized price. This pattern is a key indicator of a bull market, and despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend remains upward.
Meanwhile, in an article from Crypto Adventure, Market Analysts believe a potential for a profitable July for Bitcoin and Ethereum based on historical performance and current market conditions.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a median return of 9.6% in July and tends to bounce back strongly after a negative performance in June, with an average return of nearly 8% during July. This year, after a nearly 10% decline in June, Bitcoin is set up for a potential uplift in July based on these historical patterns.
PlanB discusses the current state of the Bitcoin market and how it aligns with his Stock-to-Flow model. He starts by noting that Bitcoin closed June above 62,000 dollars and has been trading within a range of 60,000 dollars to 70,000 dollars for the past few months.
According to PlanB, after each Bitcoin halving event, the price typically lags behind the S2F model's predicted value. It usually takes 12 to 18 months post-halving for Bitcoin's price to catch up with the model's predictions. He notes the need for patience, as the market may take time to move in the expected direction.
Despite the current market conditions, PlanB believes that Bitcoin is still in a bull market. He finds reassurance in the on-chain data, which indicates nothing abnormal. He mentions that he would be concerned if the data showed a shift to a yellow or green zone, but it remains red, suggesting that the bull market continues.
Finally, PlanB talks about the 200-week moving average, a long-term trend indicator, which is currently at 37,000 dollars and rising. This average has historically never decreased, indicating a consistently upward long-term trend for Bitcoin's price. Overall, PlanB remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future performance, believing it will continue to follow the long-term upward trend predicted by the S2F model.
Now, let’s get back to what PlanB has to say about the next charts.
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