In the past six months, Russia has taken more Ukrainian territory than it has in the two years of war combined, forcing military experts to ask the hard question: Is Ukraine losing the war?

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Is Ukraine losing the war? A year and a half ago, Russia was in bad shape. Moscow was struggling to resupply troops on the front lines, its naval fleet in the Black Sea was decimated, and troop casualty estimates were as high as half a million. However, a disappointing Ukrainian counteroffensive and a six-month delay in crucial US military aid gave Moscow an opportunity to rearm and regroup.

On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer examines the state of the battlefield in Ukraine and unpacks how Russia has been able to take territory in recent weeks at a faster clip than at any point during the war. In a sign of just how badly the situation is deteriorating, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky abruptly canceled all international trips to focus on the Russian offensive, a huge problem for a leader who needs to lobby governments for military and economic aid individually.

All eyes will be on this year’s NATO Summit in Washington, DC, where Western leaders are trying to lock in as many security guarantees for Kyiv as possible ahead of the alliance’s 75th anniversary. The problem is that they don’t have much time to figure it out.

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