The current state of the gold futures market presents a unique scenario that hasn't been witnessed since late 2018. One of the key indicators, open interest, which measures the number of contracts open on the COMEX, has significantly declined, echoing the conditions observed during late 2018. Right now, the open interest stands at around 407,000 contracts, mirroring levels from that time. This significant decrease amidst a bullish market that started in late 2015 hints at the potential for a substantial uptick in gold prices.
Historically, similar drops in open interest have preceded significant spikes in gold prices. In past rallies, gold prices soar from below $1,200 to nearly $2,100. This historical pattern suggests that despite the current low open interest, there's considerable room for gold prices to rally. Just last week, gold saw a surge, seemingly due to a safe-haven bid, propelling it to a three-week high. While the exact catalyst for this move remains unclear, gold is currently carrying bullish momentum into the upcoming week, with the potential to reach highs around $2,060.
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Credit: Arcadia Economics
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