It'll Happen OVERNIGHT! Your Gold & Silver Investment Is About to Become Priceless - Rafi Farber

Rafi Farber, an investor and author advocating the Austrian Business Cycle theory, advises maintaining sanity amidst short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices. Considering his recent analysis, Rafi Farber states that Chinese silver premiums have consistently reached about 13%. He notes three previous times this happened, in 2011 after silver peaked, at the end of 2014, and during the 2020 selloff when silver fell to around 11.50 dollars. Silver prices quoted in Shanghai continue to break records, while premiums between the Chinese and London markets are also historically high. Silver's continued rise would be a generational event, as it would finally mean that the metal is emerging from its downtrend in real terms.
Despite past high premiums occurring at silver price lows, Farber believes the current situation is unique because premiums are rising with increasing silver prices, showing sustained demand. He attributes this to a weak Chinese real estate market, prompting investors to turn to gold and silver for security.
As per Farber, significant activity occurred again in 2011 when silver hit 50 dollars. From 2011 to 2020, open interest and silver prices were inversely correlated, but this isn't the case now. Farber suggests not worrying about high open interest in the long term, though it might need to decrease slightly. Meanwhile, Farber predicts that the trends in the gold market will significantly influence silver. He notes the rising trend lines in gold prices since 2015, with higher trend lines in 2018, 2020, and early 2024, showing faster acceleration. The price predictions for gold are generally positive, with many expert statements mentioning prices of 3,000 dollars in the near to mid-term.
During the interview, Rafi Farber discussed recent CPI inflation news, noting we've been at highs unseen since 1991 in sticky price inflation. He shows a correlation between gold prices and open interest, where a drop of 100,000 contracts could signal a strong momentum in the previous market. Gold futures are trading in a narrow band as markets adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of Wednesday's rare joint offering of both US inflation data and a Federal Reserve policy decision.
Recently, open interest in gold futures saw its sharpest weekly decline since November 2022. Large speculators and managed funds reduced both their long and short positions, resulting in a slight increase in net-long exposure primarily due to closing shorts faster than opening longs. While futures traders remain bullish and gold is near its record high, the volume drop suggests some caution about expecting a new high soon.
While shifting his focus to the next aspect, Farber points out the repo market's growing use of bank reserves, currently at 57% and rising since 2022. He warns that nearing the 85% mark, as seen before the 2019 crisis, could prompt another liquidity crisis and substantial Fed intervention.

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