Jon probably would’ve done worse.
We have to keep in mind, Robb is the better lance while Jon is the better sword. Robb and Jon are two sides of the same coin. While Robb is a genius short term tactician, it’s Jon who’s the good long term strategist.
But in many ways, Robb didn’t need a Long term strategist. Initially, he played things masterfully with breaking the siege of Riverrun, which would’ve been a perfect moment for him were it not for Joffrey taking Ned’s head.
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Robb’s plan to force Taiwin west with the help of the Ironborn was pretty smart outside of the fact that Baylon is a complete moron.
And his plan to retake Moat Cailin was also pretty smart, and where it not for the Red Wedding, Robb would’ve had a pretty big victory. If it weren’t for things around him falling apart, Robb could’ve won, but I don’t think Jon would’ve been able to do much better.
Jon (especially in the books) appears wittier (which helps him recognize plots) and at the same time more conservative (which helps him skip unneccessary risks) than Robb. The whole thing from my perspective, boils down to how they reacted to their own involvement with women who they were not supposed to be with. Jon’s relationship with eegritte led to allowing the Wildlings pass through the wall. Where Robb’s relationship with Talisa (or Jayne in the books) led into yet another massacre of the Starks! This is while Jon was technically a criminal for leaving the watch while Robb, had just broken a marriage promise, nothing else! Whose smarter to escape the consequences of their action is what matters here.
Jon does not admit, even to himself, when he is sleeping with eegritte that he likes her and deludes himself into believing that this was only his duty. I say thins because someone who is able to block his own emotions and lie to himself can also lie to other people. Now, he would not deny sleeping with a Wildling woman, but marrying the daughter of a plotter for protecting her dignity is something else!
See, Robb keeps ignoring many many signs that were around him that the Westerling’s (the family from which his wife came - in the books) were planning to take him down. In the show of course we have a Disney version of this marriage, where Robb falls in love with a nurse and so on and so forth. In the show version, Robb at least has just made a choice to marry someone he is not ordered to, and that’s very Stark of him. But in the case of the books, he is just stubborn and un-intelligent in many ways. Jayne Westerling does not really love him, she is just in and out to steal his heart and she and her family are aware of the Red Wedding plot and she - unlike the show version - does not take even a cut in the event.
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