The current influenza season, dominated by the A H3N2 virus, continues to be active, though on the downswing across the nation, says the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Data collected by the CDC shows this season's influenza vaccine efficacy rate at 48-percent, estimating the vaccine has been 48-percent effective in preventing influenza illness. Mayo Clinic infectious diseases specialist Dr. Pritish Tosh says researchers use this information to determine the upcoming season's influenza vaccine, "The viral strains that are being predicted for the following season, therefore recommended for the upcoming vaccines, which are similar to what we had the previous year, with exception of the H1N1 component of the vaccine which will use a slightly different viral strain."
"The way that the strain is to be contained in the vaccine is determined through international surveillance for circulating influenza strains. There are many places throughout the world that are collecting influenza strains and finding out what’s circulating in different areas. The World Health Organization, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States look at these trends, and what is being found in different areas, and try to predict the likely influenza strains that are going to come in the following season."
Dr. Tosh says, "It takes time to develop the vaccine, from the point you identify the strain to the point that you’re actually growing it in eggs in sufficient quantities, then able to do your quality control. Rather than identifying sooner to the influenza season, because of the necessity of how the vaccine is made, that call has to be made months, up to six months, ahead of time to give the manufacturers plenty of lead time in order to make sufficient amounts of influenza vaccine to be ready for the population."
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