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Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle 2023
Last Modified: 2023-02-08 09:00 UTC

Gabrielle is located 752 km east of Cairns, Australia, and has moved southwestward at 15 km/h (8 knots) over the past 6 hours.

Gabrielle will move southward along the western edge of the subtropical ridge over the next 24 hours. After 24 hours, the subtropical ridge will shift to the northeast as a deep trough propagates over the Coral Sea, which will generally accelerate the system southeastward within the enhanced flow between the trough and the subtropical ridge.

There is a short 36-hour window for development with favorable conditions, before the system interacts with the shortwave trough and increasing wind shear. Therefore, the peak intensity of 140 km/h (75 knots) is anticipated in 36 hours then steady weakening through the remainder of the forecast.

Gabrielle will slow and undergo subtropical transition as it nears New Zealand. Wind shear associated with the subtropical jet will increase to 75-110 km/h (40-60 knots) while sea surface temperatures cool to 24 to 22°C.

Model guidance remains in good agreement with a 100 to 204 km spread in solutions through the forecast period lending high confidence to the JTWC forecast track.

As indicated in the 07/18:00 UTC COAMPS-TC ensemble, rapid intensification (RI) is possible within the next 36 hours with peak probabilities of 40 to 50% over the next 24 hours. Additionally, rapid intensification aids have triggered reflecting a conducive RI environment characterized by robust poleward outflow, low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

Maximum significant wave height is 4.9 meters (16 feet).

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

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