From 19FortyFive.com - How does the unthinkable happen? The United States and China are inextricably locked into the Pacific Rim’s international trade system. Some argue that this makes war impossible, but wars that people have believed to be impossible have nevertheless broken out.
This video updates an argument made eight years ago, concentrating less on the operational and tactical details of a US-China war and more on the strategic objectives of the major combatants before, during, and after the conflict. A war between the United States and China would transform the geopolitics of East Asia, but could also leave many crucial elements unchanged. Tragically, a conflict between China and the US might be remembered only as “The First Sino-American War.”
America vs. China: How the War Would Start
Taiwan has become the most likely trigger for war between China and the United States. The continued assertiveness of the PRC with respect to Taiwan, combined with the decision of the Biden administration to make its commitment to the defense of the island more explicit, has made it hard to imagine an alternative source of conflict.
How the war begins depends on how Beijing measures the global political situation. From a purely military point of view, launching direct attacks against US military assets in the theater of operations would be the best way of achieving operational surprise and inflicting maximum damage on the Americans before they could respond. However, China may see some political advantage in provoking a US response rather than attacking pre-emptively. In this case, China would begin military operations against Taiwan and await a US response, hoping to generate global sympathy and perhaps a disruptive political debate within the US itself.
19FortyFive present a longform video to get a better understanding of what a war between the U.S. and China would look like.
