Beryl has held steady as a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. It appears to be slowly trying to strengthen, but there is still dry air swirling in its center. It will have a chance of intensifying Sunday night before a landfall along the Texas coast before dawn on Monday.
Models show Beryl strengthening Sunday night due to very warm water near 87 degrees plus lower wind shear. But there are also some limiting factors such as continued dry air around, plus a faster movement and a more spread-out presentation. We'll see whether it can strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane before landfall which is projected to be just west of Galveston very early Monday morning.
Impacts for the southeast Texas coast include tropical storm- or hurricane-force winds, storm surge of up to seven feet, rip currents along the coast and local flooding from heavy rain. Rain totals around the Houston area look like 5-10 inches through Monday, but a few spots could get up to 15 inches.
In southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, only minimal impacts are expected. The main impact is scattered rain expected on Tuesday due to moisture loosely associated with Beryl (which will be well inland and much weaker at that point). Rain totals could be up to an inch or two. Tides may also run a foot or two higher than normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Plus, it'll be breezy at times Monday and Tuesday with winds coming mostly from the south.
