Prediction markets enable you to bet on the outcomes of real-world events by buying shares for those outcomes. Share prices can be interpreted as the probability that the underlying event will happen, therefore they provide an aggregate measure of what the market's participants believe. Prediction markets have been found to provide very accurate probabilities, and there have been interesting proposals to use them for improving institutional decision-making. In this video, we'll explore all of this and more. Examples of prediction platforms are: Augur and Polymarket (on the Ethereum blockchain), predictIt, the FTX crypto exchange, and Metaculus.
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▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀LINKS & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Wikipedia on prediction markets (it's pretty good): [ Ссылка ]
Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases, by David Rothschild: [ Ссылка ]
Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? (by Robin Hanson): [ Ссылка ]
Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (by Robin Hanson): [ Ссылка ]
Augur: [ Ссылка ]
Polymarket: [ Ссылка ]
PredictIt: [ Ссылка ]
FTX: [ Ссылка ]
ElectionBettingOdds: [ Ссылка ]
Metaculus: [ Ссылка ]
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Script by:
- Matthew Barnett
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Animation by:
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Narration by Robert Miles: [ Ссылка ]
