Saudi Arabia JUST CRUSHED Massive Oil Deals With US | Russia Takes Over
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Saudi Arabia made another smart move to evade US sanctions by buying a large amount of Russian diesel. Traders have been taking advantage of low prices in the UAE's Fujairah hub and Saudi Arabia to stock up on fuel.
The Middle East is quickly becoming a major supplier of industrial fuel to Europe and Africa while also contributing to stocks in Asia.
There has been increased production from Saudi and Kuwaiti refineries and Russian oil. And so, Asian diesel exporters have been pushed out of these markets, which has resulted in lower prices and margins for refiners in the East.
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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is really good at selling oil to other countries. They also make more oil than any other country in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But because the US was being mean to Russia by not buying their oil, Saudi Arabia had to start getting oil from other places.
They bought a lot of Russian diesel in March and April, which is more than they ever have before! Russian diesel cargoes scheduled to be shipped in March are being sold at a price range of $60 to $70 per barrel.
This price includes free-on-board services and is roughly $20 less than the benchmark price set in the Middle East. Now, here's the kicker: even though the G7 group has put a cap of $100 per barrel on the price, this is still a good deal since traders can still use Western ships and insurance services.
Selling Russian oil has become tricky because getting insurance and ships from the West is hard. Traders keep the oil at hubs like Fujairah and then sell it again. To make sure they still make money, they have to give a big discount because they have to pay for shipping and for the risk of something bad happening.
Mark Williams, who is a director of research at Wood Mackenzie, says the discount has to be even bigger than the cost of an alternative barrel of oil.
Refinitiv data shows that the Middle East's diesel exports to northwest Europe hit over 1 million tonnes per month in the first quarter 2023, up from 785,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter 2022.
March-loading exports to Africa reached 2.57 million tonnes, the highest in four months, and volumes to Asia also hit a new high. Saudi Arabia also increased its diesel exports from Yanbu and Rabigh to Europe.
However, this could affect global refining margins, which may fall to $6.60 per barrel in Q4 2023, down from an average of $11 in the same quarter in 2022.
Wood Mackenzie analysts believe that the sanctions on Russian crude and oil products have significantly increased Russian diesel imports. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and other big players in the oil industry have revealed unexpected reductions in their oil production.
Saudi Arabia and some other big oil producers announced they're cutting up to 1.15 million barrels of oil per day from May to December.
This could increase the price of oil worldwide, making things tougher for people filling up their cars. It could also give Russian President Vladimir Putin extra cash while his country is in conflict with Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia's decision to cut oil production could also lead to more tension with the United States. The US has urged Saudi Arabia and other allies to increase production to lower prices and pressure Russia.
However, the production cuts could result in higher gasoline prices in the US, with an estimated increase of 26 cents per gallon.
This is in addition to the usual increase during the summer driving season when refineries change their gasoline blend. The Energy Department estimates this seasonal increase around 32 cents per gallon.
Now, the average US price for regular gasoline is about $3.50 per gallon. This means the price could go up to over $4 per gallon during the summer.
However, oil and gas prices are affected by many complex factors. The production cuts of each country depend on the baseline production number used, so the cut may not be exactly 1.15 million.
Additionally, the cuts could take a while to have an effect. Demand could decrease if the US goes into recession due to the banking crisis. But, during the summer, demand may increase as more people travel.
Furthermore, Iraq also announced that it will decrease its oil production by 211,000 barrels per day. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman followed suit, reducing their oil production by 144,000, 128,000, 78,000, 48,000, and 40,000 barrels per day, respectively.
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