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Alexei Navalny, who lies critically ill in a German hospital after being poisoned in Siberia, is Russias unofficial leader of the opposition and the politician Vladimir Putin fears most. Relatively young, resourceful and smart, he has bravely defied many previous attempts to silence him, including imprisonment and physical attacks. Navalny is not easily dismissed as a pro-western dissident or leftwing intellectual. He is a Russian patriot, a daring, Jason Bourne-like figure who recently flew drones over the private dachas of the Kremlin elite to expose their apparently corruptly acquired wealth, then posted videos online. That the Kremlin is responsible for Navalnys plight is not in serious doubt. Whether Putin had prior knowledge of the plot, or personally authorised it, will probably never be known. As usual, the Kremlin is hiding behind a wall of denials and absurd claims, such as that Navalny fell ill after flying on an empty stomach. But his German doctors are unequivocal. He was poisoned by a chemical nerve agent, novichok, which the Russian state secretly developed and which only Russia is known to have used. Why choose this particular moment to assassinate a longstanding opponent? One possible reason is widespread political unrest in Russias far east, which Navalny tried to tap into before he was attacked. For a worried Kremlin, the pro-democracy uprising in neighbouring Belarus sets a dangerous precedent he could exploit. Another possible reason is the negative impact of the pandemic on Russias economy, which is in freefall, and on Putins personal standing. The timing may also have been influenced by events further afield. Putin reportedly expects Donald Trump to be re-elected in November. According to US intelligence, he is doing his covert best to help him. But if Joe Biden wins, Putins easy ride will end. American tolerance for his anti-western subversion operations and malign meddling in places such as Ukraine, the Baltic
