The last two years of real estate have been far from predictable - but we now have some precedented experiences to make some predictions. Stay tuned as we delve into the Winnipeg Real Estate Market and make our predictions for 2022. This is in no way, REMAX's predictions, but rather those as your local Realtor in looking at the factors discussed when predicting whether it is a good year to be buying or selling.
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Factors to watch:
Interest Rates. Increases or decreases have an impact on buyer affordability.

Supply and Demand of houses. The availability of homes to purchase decreased drastically through the pandemic. If we start seeing sellers more confident about selling their homes in this market, this could change.

Immigration rates. Canada reopened the border to new permanent residents. The target for 2021 was 401,000 new permanent residents and they have increased those numbers slightly for both 2022 and 2023.

Consumer behaviour. If there was one thing we discovered in 2020, it is how everything can change on a dime!

Migration patterns. Hubs like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver were known to be quite expensive to live in, and are also more densely populated. In the pandemic, people started to migrate away from these areas as working remotely meant opportunities to live in more affordable communities.

Supply Chain issues. The ability for builders to source the product that they need to build their homes will also have an impact on the market here.

Manitoba’s economy: Manitoba is a large exporter of many items, and the demand for those items will also have some drive on our economy.

What we predict:
We predict that early in 2022 that we will hear an announcement of the overnight rate going up. That this will lead to increases in interest rates and in turn, impact buyer affordability. We DO NOT think this will have any immediate effect on the market. Oftentimes when we start seeing these announcements, we don’t notice any market impact for another month or two. Oftentimes, buyers have a 60 or 90 day hold on their mortgage pre-approval, so the higher rate won’t affect them unless they are unable to purchase a home within that period and have to re-apply.

I do think it might lessen the competitiveness on the bidding wars of some homes. However, we still have such a supply issue (as in there is very little of it), that demand isn’t going to catch up anytime soon. Also, keep in mind that while an increase in mortgage rate indicates an increase in monthly payments for these purchasers, that they are still all required to qualify at a 5.25% OR the lenders rate plus 2%. So only once mortgages are at 3.25% does this technically affect their pre-approval rate.

Supply and demand changes – we have now gone through a few variants of COVID. Each time there does seem to be some slowing of the availability of new home options. However, the announcements of new variants seems to be the new normal, and having less of an impact on people’s willingness to list their homes. I do anticipate we will see more listings hitting the market in 2022 – both from sellers feeling more confident about having strangers within their homes, as well as sellers wanting to take advantage of the current market.

Immigration into Manitoba has been very solid and is anticipated to remain solid. Whether it be a newcomer or longterm resident of Canada, our employment sector looks strong for 2022, which will contribute positively to the ability to purchase homes.

I do think that building has become less attractive in Manitoba, for a couple of reasons. Supply chain issues have led to a lot of uncertainty. This is both in terms of timelines – with many builders projecting over a year between now and possession (we are talking about 2023 possessions at the end of 2021), as well as increasing costs with escalation clauses. This is making the resale market far more attractive, and I suspect we might see a more moderate level of new building starts.

My prediction is that we still see bidding wars throughout 2022. Perhaps they aren’t as aggressive – not as many buyers bidding as there is more selection out there and the downward pressure from increasing mortgage payments from the rising interest rates will also make our buyers more price sensitive. What I DO NOT anticipate however, is any real decrease in the value of homes. I do believe that homes will maintain their value throughout the year, impacted largely through the net migration and solid industry and employment opportunities. Historically, Manitoba has been one of the most solid provinces to invest within – with year over year growth. I think all of these factors combined make for a slightly less hot, but still historically strong market in 2022.

The Jennifer Queen Team
RE/MAX Professionals
(204) 797-7945
Jennifer@JenniferQueen.com

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